Phillies pitcher Chan Ho Park is currently getting lit up like Christmas tree, and I wonder what the hell Charlie Manuel was thinking when he decided to give Park a job out of Spring Training. Now I've met Charlie Manuel, and he's a really nice guy, but the dude is not Bill James by a longshot. Unfortunately, a lot of managers (not just Charlie) also make the mistake of handing jobs to players who perform well for three or four weeks. Sure, Chan Ho Park was great for 1 month, but he's been terrible for 7. Seven SEASONS.
I think that Spring Training stats do matter, at least in two situations:
- Rookies with little major league experience: Small sample sizes apply here too, of course, but when you don't know what the player's true ceiling is, there's a possibility that that is it.
- Players rehabbing from injury: If a player rakes in ST, it may not necessarily tell you how good he is, but at least it can tell you if he's healthy or not.
Other guys with established track records and ceilings, like Park or Austin Kearns, should be viewed with a jaundiced eye when they massively outperform their career numbers. Players who suddenly learn to hit or pitch at age 35 are exceedingly rare.
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