The Most Valuable Pitcher Signed Out of Japan

Well, that's Hideo Nomo, at 4.9 WAR. A fine season by any measure. But I bet you can't guess who's the second-most valuable pitcher signed as a free agent out of Japan. It's not Ishii. it's not Sasaki. Dice-K? Get out of here. Hiroki Kuroda? Close, but no cigar.

That's right, ladies and gentlemen, your WAR runner-up is...Colby Lewis at 4.4 WAR.

A Winner is You!

When I heard that Lewis--a onetime top prospect for the Rangers (he was the 38th pick in 1999)--was returning to the States after a stint in Japan, my interest was initially piqued for one reason only - I actually owned Lewis on my first fantasy baseball team ever, in 2004. He was decidedly mediocre, got injured, and I dropped him, and that was that. So I took his return as his opportunity to repay my initial faith in me, because he OWES me. Yeah, I kid, I kid.

But outside of that, he was intriguing because he utterly dominated Japanese hitters, leading the Central League in strikeouts both seasons he was there. He added a pitch to his repertoire (by some accounts a cutter, but it looks like a slider to me), got aggressive, and blew guys away like he'd never done before. So I went all-in on him this year, owning him in all of my leagues. It turned out to be one of the only good decisions I made all year.

Now granted, he got a teensy bit lucky this season. A flyball pitcher in Arlington usually yields light shows rivaling the 4th of July, but the strikeout rate is legit. His fastball is 3-4 MPH slower than he threw as a prospect, but he throws that new slider a whopping near-30% of the time. And boy, that pitch is filthy; worth 13.6 runs above average! By comparison, this year, Mariano Rivera's cutter was worth 16.7.

I think it's interesting how poorly major league teams have done scouting Japanese starters, though it's not like I myself would have guessed that Hiroki Kuroda would turn out to be a better pitcher than Dice-K. Perhaps we should temper our expectations for Yu Darvish?