For the record, I did read Moneyball and I enjoyed it a lot. But it bugs me when people talk about it like it's a book about the A's and how they'll always be successful. They'll look at guys who never panned out like Jeremy Brown and conclude that the A's were actually nothing special after all.
But the book was never really about how the A's had a secret statistic or some kind of magical way of evaluating players; it was simply about exploiting the inefficiencies of the system, wherever they were. In baseball it was scouting with your gut and the over-reliance on overrated stats like batting average. It's been interesting to see that as other front offices have started to populate their staff with advanced statisticians, like the Blue Jays and the Rays, the A's have been struggling mightily. The "arbitrage" opportunities are gone.
With all that said, let's judge the A's by their Moneyball draft picks because it'll be fun and less depressing than thinking anything substantive about the Orioles:
Jeremy Brown: It feels like half the book was about this guy and how he was going to rake despite being really fat. He actually did hit for quite a bit of power (caveat: he put up those numbers in the Texas League and PCL) and put up a .370 total OBP in the minors. DFA and retired after only 10 ABs in the majors, but can say he retired as a .300 hitter. Surprised he didn't get more of a chance - I'm not sure about his defense and he probably wasn't even as good a hitter as Kurt Suzuki, but he has to have been better than Adam Melhuse.
Nick Swisher: Flew through the system until he hit Midland where he put up some horrific numbers and an inability to control the zone which soured him on more than a few scouts. Was inexplicably promoted to Sacramento, where he proceeded to tear the cover off the ball. Has settled into a pretty good hitter/middling fielder groove good for about 3-4 WAR per season.
Joe Blanton: I seriously don't know what they expected from a guy who put up a 4.59 ERA in the SEC (yeah yeah, I know ERA isn't everything, but for some reason I can't find any of his peripheral college stats), but he's been an effective innings-eater. Did have one spectacular season in 2007, worth 5.6 WAR.
Mark Teahen: Pretty much the definition of "league average" player. Had one really promising season in 2006 and never flashed that kind of power ever again. Currently owns a career .327 OBP.
I don't remember who else they picked, but they I assume they all suck.
Now, while I am NOT faulting the A's for one second for not picking the following high schoolers, since hindsight is 20/20, I do think it is interesting that in the first 4 rounds they COULD have picked:
Cole Hamels
Joey Votto
Jon Lester
Jonathan Broxton
Brian McCann
Josh Johnson
I'm not sure if the 2002 draft was an outlier, but it seems like the high school picks experienced a greater level of success than the college picks did.
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