Well, I take that back. If these guys fall past their projected draft positions, I'd be happy to take them. I just don't want them at their current valuations.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka: This is one of the phoniest 2.90 ERAs in recent years; his peripherals would have pointed to around a 4.00 instead. Dice-K was incredibly lucky last year--continually loading the bases and then wriggling out of it is not so much skill as luck. If you had the skill, would you have loaded the bases so many times in the first place? With that said, Matsuzaka has pretty good strikeout numbers and is definitely a solid starter, though the WHIP keeps him out of the stratosphere. Let someone else gamble on him.
- Jay Bruce: Certainly got off to a hot start, but his second time around the league showed that he could be dealt with pretty effectively. Throw him junk away or bust him high and tight and he'll swing through the pitch pretty reliably. He will be a star someday, but he's going to struggle this year; his 71% contact rate has to improve a lot to avoid becoming Adam Dunn redux. I think he'll do it--just not this year.
- Matt Kemp: I had him on my team this year (actually, I had both him and Dice-K), but I fully realize how lucky he was. With his prodigious strikeout rate and mediocre contact rate, he had no business hitting even the .290 that he did...the .360 BABIP indicates a lot of lucky drops. He also has the potential to be a star, but he's as likely to hit .250 as he is to hit .300, and at some point, his doubles power has to mature into something a little grander before I'm completely sold.
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