Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Foolproof Stock Market Advice


Now that I work in finance, people ask me a lot about the economy. I pretend to know what's going on, but who really does? Psh. Not me.

You know Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks? I used to be convinced that he was a total quack--nothing more than a dilettante who got lucky during the dotcom boom. But the more I think about it and the more I read the stuff on his blog, the more I'm convinced that the man is brilliant, in a very down-to-earth way. I've actually written to him and he was kind enough to send a response.

Anyway, one thing he said at one point that has always stuck with me goes something like this: "There is no such thing as a stock market expert. If there was such a thing, he wouldn't be talking to you, he would be vacationing on the island he just bought with all the money he made in the stock market." I don't know if he was quoting someone else or if he made that up himself, but either way, that is damn good advice. In fact, that should be the litmus test for ANY professional whose advice you're relying upon:

"If this psychic was really psychic, would she be working in this run-down shack talking to me, or would she have predicted winning lottery numbers instead?"

"If my fund manager really could guarantee 30% return, would he be driving a Geo Metro to work every day?"

So my foolproof stock market advice? Let the monkey pick your stocks. I dare you to beat a 36% return!

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