Last year I made a few assertions about overrated fantasy baseball players, reproduced here. I thought it would interesting to see how I fared:
"Curtis Granderson - Dude can’t hit lefties for shit and with his contact rate should not be a .302 hitter. Also, I don’t care that he’s the first player since Willie Mays or whatever to have 20 triples and 20 doubles and 20 homers or whatever. Triples and doubles aren’t a category in my league. He’s getting better though, admittedly, though don’t expect him to steal 26 bases and only get caught once this year. He’s not even really all that fast. Real nice guy though. I like his blog."
He did play slightly fewer games this year, but he indeed did not steal anywhere near 26 bases (12). He also was not a .300 hitter. He did, however, inexplicably improve against lefties and had a solid season, even if he was a little bit overvalued in drafts. Still a nice guy though. I call this one a wash.
"Alex Rios - This is not to say that Rios isn’t a good player, and he may even be a superstar. But an average draft position of around 30? Take a look at this:
Rios in 2007: .297-24-85, with 17 steals, in 161 games, age 26
72nd ADP Player: .295-24-81, with 23 steals in just 140 games, age 25.
Alex Rios drafted 40 picks before Corey Hart? I don’t think so."
Rios' production took a little tumble but was partly mitigated by a career-high 30+ steals. Hart suffered a dip in his batting average but was pretty much the same as last year otherwise. They're pretty much even in terms of overall performance, but with a 40 pick differential coming into the season, I'm comfortable calling this a hit.
"Bobby Abreu - Give up, guys. He put on an awesome show in the home run derby, but when you get right down to it, the guy has struggled to jack 20 the past two years. Even Johnny Damon blew him away in 2006, and I’ve never seen HIM in the home run derby. I have no idea why Abreu’s being drafted ahead of Nick Markakis."
As a player, I think Markakis improved from last year, but his fantasy production sure didn't. Abreu easily matched Markakis' counting stats while chipping in twice the steals. I even acquired him in one of my leagues. He's not worth the money he's getting, but that's a completely different discussion. Definitely a miss.
"BJ Upton - This guy is typically the 25th pick! You are on crack if you think he’s a surefire .300 hitter, what with his prodigiously high K rates and his prodigiously low contact rate. The guy had a BABIP of .399 last year! That is absolutely not sustainable next year. I know he has 2B eligibility, but if you’re going to play the scarcity game, take Russell Martin–who’s going with the 30th pick, on average. Upton might be very good someday, but he’ll have to iron out some flaws…don’t be the owner he irons himself out on."
I admit it didn't take Nostradamus to see that his batting average would fall, but he completely fell off the cliff in a year that was salvaged only by a sterling 44 steals. On the other hand, a lot of his lost power production was due to a balky shoulder, and his contact rate soared, walks rose, and strikeouts dropped. He'll be a star if he can reign in his swing. It just wasn't this year...hit.
"Kevin Millar - I’m just amazed anyone is looking at their roster, no matter how late in the draft, and thinking, “hey, I could really use Kevin Millar in that roster spot.” Millar’s old enough and established enough that we can pretty much write down now how valuable he’ll be in a 1B slot–not very. He’s not going to surprise you. You’d be better off taking a chance on Ryan Shealy or Brad Wilkerson."
Hopefully you took Shealy for his 20 game tear and ignored the part about Brad Wilkerson. Miss.
Final tally: 2 hit, 2 miss, 1 wash. Don't quit my day job, eh?
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